20/6/2011 4:50PM

SET 1013.09 (-5.87)

In the afternoon, SET opened lower, tried to come back up, but couldn't get past 1019. It then made a decline, closing at the day's low. Ugly. The top losing sectors of the day are Bank, Food, and Commerce sectors, each losing more than 1%. Currently, no sector indices are above their 20-day SMA, with most actually below the 50-day SMA. Also, on the weekly chart, the candlestick indicates an engulfing bear candle, which is not good. However, it's only Monday, so all of that can change. As long as the index closes above 1013.66, then we're fine. But if it closes below that point on Friday, then we have a confirmed engulfing bear, which is usually followed by a large drop the following week or two.

The next two major supports are 980 and 940 in my opinion. Sure, you'll see support in the 1000 area and also 990, but the major turning points would be 980 and 940. Why 980 and 940? 980 is because of the price projection from the descending triangle that I talked about before. 940 is the previous low in February 2011. Below 940 and we're in big trouble because there aren't any real consolidation zones between 940 and 800. Yes, 800... There are minor consolidations in the 910-920 area, 880 area, 850-860 area, 820, and then 800, but I think that if SET does break the 940, then the downward momentum will pick up even more and it'll drop. Remember that from June to November 2010, the market went up and up and up. So, expect a down and down and down, but a lot faster.

Oh, so gloom and doom. All the peaches seems to be wilting away. There's a black cloud over my head. But I do believe that we are in a turning point in the Thai and global market. If anyone uses the Guppy moving average model, you'll see that the long-term EMA's are flipping down. MACD is about to be lower than the February level. RSI is making its way towards that oversold area again.

So basically, the question is: How much more bad news and uncertainties can investors take? Like I said before, China is the only thing keeping the world afloat right now. Bad news from China will an immediate trigger point, I believe. One can only hope for the Greece thing to be okay.