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Thread: The SET Index Discussion

  1. #1

    The SET Index Discussion

    Hey, I just wanted to start up a topic that discusses the movements of the SET Index, that mainly uses Technical Analysis, but any analysis is fine, really.
    Hope it'll make this forum more lively. Please give your opinions and analyses.
    Props to the creator for a great site that gives you historical data longer than 1 year.

    SET Index closed at 1034.75 (-11.41)
    SET broke its previous low of 1048.63 (06/05/2011) on 6/6/2011. Today, it tested 1048, but couldn't get past. Eventually, SET went below the 1040 "natural" support causing rapid selloff in the late afternoon.

    I have noticed that the SET Index has been forming a head-and-shoulder pattern for a while now, with the left shoulder on 8/4/2011, head on 21/4/2011, and right shoulder on 11/5/2011 (see daily SET chart). It broke the neckline on 23/5/2011, but still hovered around the 50-day moving average before breaking down (this is like William O'Neil's theory).

    However, at the same time, I notice that the index is also forming a descending triangle, in which is broke downward yesterday 6/6/2011.

    Now, with the head and shoulder pattern, I would give the target price at 1020 (using semi-log scale price projection).
    But with the descending triangle, I could see the index falling to 980.

    I'm leaning towards the 1020 mark, but with the political situation, I could see it getting worse.

    So my question to everyone is whether or not you think it's a H&S or a descending Triangle? Or something else.
    Last edited by Mp808; 2011-06-07 at 17:26. Reason: adding some stuff

  2. #2
    9:00 am

    Not looking good so far today. DJIA made a sudden fall after Bernanke didn't mention specifically that there will be a QE3. Crude oil is expected to drop lower by expected increase in daily production by OPEC. Crude oil went up today on news that US supply less than forecast. But this seems temporary to me. OPEC rise in daily production will likely make a longer lasting effect on price. The level of impact all depends on how much the daily quota will be increased.

    Nearly all Asian indices opened down today, including Nikkei and Hang Seng. Yen strengthens against the dollar and euro.

    Volcano in Chile affecting air travels.

    Good luck today, but looks like another SET down move towards 1020 (I think).

  3. #3
    Whew! Officially broke the 1020 area! It's all out hell now. See you at 1000.

  4. #4
    Lunch Time Report

    Well well, rough morning eh? So SET went below my predicted support of 1020, with heavy selling all around, especially Banks and Energy stocks, but the index is still hovering around 1016-1020 area. The bearish momentum seems to be slowing down a bit in the late morning session, as the daily RSI is likely to have entered the oversold area, causing such a fast sell off in the early morning. Well, not much to say now. It's a wait and see game now. Will the 1016-1020 area act like a stack of fluffy pillows and lead to a slight rebound; or will SET take a second round of beating in the afternoon session? Or should we just stop watching the ticker because even if it keeps going down, it's too late for us to have the courage to cut that loss...hehe.

  5. #5
    8/6/2011 11:15PM

    As I thought it was gonna keep going down tomorrow, some good news arrived. Turns out oil production quota will not be raised as OPEC countries voted against the increase, sending crude oil back up above $100. So we should see some recovery in the energy sector tomorrow. Whoever bought SUSCO at the low today might be happy tomorrow.

    As of right now, Dow Jones is slightly positive, but it could easily fall down into the negative zone in a couple of hours since Europe didn't do so well today either.

    So if I had to decide, I would say that SET will likely move sideways and eventually into the negative zone by the end of the day tomorrow, but I don't think it would be as crazy as today. It is very possible that SET will test the 1018-1020 resistance zone, but I have doubts that it will go above it. Then, after failing to pass the resistance, it'll come down to about 1010-1012. This is just my gut feeling though. It's survival mode now. Good luck strangers.

  6. #6
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1003.00 (-11.58)

    Well well, looks like I've overestimated the good news and underestimated the bears.
    The morning session low was 998.39, which I still consider to be in the 1000 support zone, but it's looking tough.
    The small investors better make the right move because it's a killing out there.
    Foreigners are selling. Institutions are scaring the hell out of the small investors to sell and then buying it right back at the low.

    If it does break below 1000 today, then I think we'll see it go as far as 990 this afternoon. My target now would be 980 for the next few days, since the 1020 obviously didn't hold. If it goes below 980, then I would suggest turning off your computer and phone and cry beacause the next stop would be around 940. (The previous low on February 11th, 2011, was 937.06)

    In addition, SET has officially crossed below the 200-day SMA (1005), but still above the 200-day EMA (990). It's never a good sign when you cross below the 200-day MA, whatever type of MA it is. But let's see what happens. They're out to force you to make a mistake!

  7. #7
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1018.94 (+2.09)

    After a week of misery, US stocks rose on trade surplus data, sending the rest of the world up. Yesterday, SET closed at 1016.85, a turnaround after dipping under the 200-day SMA. SET closed at the high and with the long bottom tail, small body candlestick. Hinting at a reversal where the bears go back to their caves and the bulls come out and play for a while. But one cannot be so sure. I'm still not that optimistic. Foreigners are still selling, and still have a lot more to sell. The net value of foreign buying/selling since June 1, 2010 to now is still +72,820 million baht; and from January 2010 to now is +52,516 m. This year, Foreign buying/selling is at -6066 m. So a lot of foreign money is still in the market and if they wanted to sell 10% more to offset the political risk, then it would mean a large drop in the SET Index.

    Today, the index opened up sharply, but stopped and dropped at 1025.56, reflecting investors' anxiety and the "เล่นเร็ว" mentality that has plagued the market for most of this year. Also, it turns out that the daily RSI never reached the oversold area two days ago (8/6/2011), but it pretty much "bounced" off that oversold area.

    Leading the market today are the Food (TF), Packaging, and Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals (DSGT) sectors. Lagging the market is the ConMat sector (SCC & SCCC), but good for DCON.

    Overall, I'm still bearish about the market. I think this is only a temporary pause in the market correction. It's a wait and see game. Let's see how long this "rebound" will last. 1048-1055 would be the important resistance zone.

  8. #8
    10/6/2011 10PM
    SET 1020.37 (+3.52)

    Let me just start off by saying that the afternoon session was truly epic. Whoever was watching the ticker would know. For those of you who missed it, let me tell you what happened. SET had made its daily high (1025.56) very early in the morning, only about 10-20 minutes after the open. Then it went down for a while. When the afternoon session opened, it was a little quiet...for about 2 minutes. Then, the bulls started buying, pushing the index up from about 1018 to about 1020. Then, there was a breather around the 1020-1021 area, and then the bulls were back pushing the index up to 1022, 1023, 1024!

    By now, the bears were in also full steam. It was crazy! None of this little investor type deal, it was almost all block trading, large amounts of shares. Simply put, it was a freakin' battle! Institutions (bulls) vs Foreigners (bears). It's like two gladiators battling to the death to be the Champ. Like Maximus and the current Champ fighting, with Local Investors and Proprietary as the tigers on the side of the arena, trying to get a piece of the action. And they used every arsenal they had. Around 15:45 to 16:15 was probably the most intense. The index itself didn't move much, but that's because you got two large bodies of mass going head to head; there's a lot of force, but it ain't moving. And I'm not even exaggerating. I was watching to see if it would break the daily high, and it got...oh so close. The bulls were hanging on as the index fluctuated between 1024-1025, then it became 1023-1024, and I knew it was over. Eventually, the bears got the final blow and the index dropped down, closing at 1020.37.

    I think that the real game changers, though, were the Local Investors and Proprietary. If they had sided with the Institutions, then I think it would have gone above the daily high, and then it would have ran up at least 5 points more. But the fact of the matter is that people are scared. The local investors are watching on the sideline to see how it's gonna turn out. But unlike most days where the battle is usually short, or there's not much of a battle at all, today, it stretched for the entire afternoon session. In the end, fear won. People are thinking that if they don't sell now, then they might miss the chance. Better "safe" than sorry. Like in the movie when Maximus eventually goes to the side too much and the tiger jumps on him, knocking him down to the ground. But who knows...the Champ thought he won, but Maximus stabbed the tiger and got back up. So maybe there'll be another battle next week and Maximus will win out. Or maybe, in reality, the tiger would have bitten Maximus' head off. We shall see!

  9. #9
    10/6/2011 11:20 PM

    Ok, so I just read the news and saw the US & European Indices. European Indices down by 1% to 2%. Dow Jones currently down by about 1.2%. Looks like the "rebound" is over. All this because Saudi Arabia is flexing its muscles and is intent on increasing oil production even though the OPEC summit didn't reach an agreement. Crude oil dropped below $100. However, Mark Mobius said that he's confident about SET even though there's political uncertainty. Seems like global politics is more like a contest to see who can be the most arrogant and get away with it. Every country is saying that they have some sort of leverage over the world and they're willing to use it. Globalization at its finest...

  10. #10
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1007.71 (-12.66)

    It's a lazy Monday morning. SET opened around 1013, gapping down about 7 points from Friday's close. It is likely that today's close will be in the negative zone, thus leading to an "evening star" candlestick pattern in the daily SET chart that signals a bearish reversal. We see Hang Seng and CSI 300 recovering a little bit after their lunch break, but they are still also in the negative zone.

    Even though SET is down 12 points, it is trading at a pretty low value of 7,862.07 m bht. Seems like everyone is worn out from last week's fiasco. I wouldn't expect any panic sells as long as SET is above the other day's low of 998.

    Leading today's loss are the Energy, Bank, and Property Development sectors. No gains in any sector right now.

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