The SET Index Discussion

[Mp808]

Hey, I just wanted to start up a topic that discusses the movements of the SET Index, that mainly uses Technical Analysis, but any analysis is fine, really.
Hope it'll make this forum more lively. Please give your opinions and analyses.
Props to the creator for a great site that gives you historical data longer than 1 year.


7/6/2011
SET Index closed at 1034.75 (-11.41)
SET broke its previous low of 1048.63 (06/05/2011) on 6/6/2011. Today, it tested 1048, but couldn't get past. Eventually, SET went below the 1040 "natural" support causing rapid selloff in the late afternoon.

I have noticed that the SET Index has been forming a head-and-shoulder pattern for a while now, with the left shoulder on 8/4/2011, head on 21/4/2011, and right shoulder on 11/5/2011 (see daily SET chart). It broke the neckline on 23/5/2011, but still hovered around the 50-day moving average before breaking down (this is like William O'Neil's theory).

However, at the same time, I notice that the index is also forming a descending triangle, in which is broke downward yesterday 6/6/2011.

Now, with the head and shoulder pattern, I would give the target price at 1020 (using semi-log scale price projection).
But with the descending triangle, I could see the index falling to 980.

I'm leaning towards the 1020 mark, but with the political situation, I could see it getting worse.

So my question to everyone is whether or not you think it's a H&S or a descending Triangle? Or something else.