The SET Index Discussion

[Mp808]

Lunchtime Report
SET 1003.00 (-11.58)

Well well, looks like I've overestimated the good news and underestimated the bears.
The morning session low was 998.39, which I still consider to be in the 1000 support zone, but it's looking tough.
The small investors better make the right move because it's a killing out there.
Foreigners are selling. Institutions are scaring the hell out of the small investors to sell and then buying it right back at the low.

If it does break below 1000 today, then I think we'll see it go as far as 990 this afternoon. My target now would be 980 for the next few days, since the 1020 obviously didn't hold. If it goes below 980, then I would suggest turning off your computer and phone and cry beacause the next stop would be around 940. (The previous low on February 11th, 2011, was 937.06)

In addition, SET has officially crossed below the 200-day SMA (1005), but still above the 200-day EMA (990). It's never a good sign when you cross below the 200-day MA, whatever type of MA it is. But let's see what happens. They're out to force you to make a mistake!

[Mp808]

Lunchtime Report
SET 1018.94 (+2.09)

After a week of misery, US stocks rose on trade surplus data, sending the rest of the world up. Yesterday, SET closed at 1016.85, a turnaround after dipping under the 200-day SMA. SET closed at the high and with the long bottom tail, small body candlestick. Hinting at a reversal where the bears go back to their caves and the bulls come out and play for a while. But one cannot be so sure. I'm still not that optimistic. Foreigners are still selling, and still have a lot more to sell. The net value of foreign buying/selling since June 1, 2010 to now is still +72,820 million baht; and from January 2010 to now is +52,516 m. This year, Foreign buying/selling is at -6066 m. So a lot of foreign money is still in the market and if they wanted to sell 10% more to offset the political risk, then it would mean a large drop in the SET Index.

Today, the index opened up sharply, but stopped and dropped at 1025.56, reflecting investors' anxiety and the "เล่นเร็ว" mentality that has plagued the market for most of this year. Also, it turns out that the daily RSI never reached the oversold area two days ago (8/6/2011), but it pretty much "bounced" off that oversold area.

Leading the market today are the Food (TF), Packaging, and Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals (DSGT) sectors. Lagging the market is the ConMat sector (SCC & SCCC), but good for DCON.

Overall, I'm still bearish about the market. I think this is only a temporary pause in the market correction. It's a wait and see game. Let's see how long this "rebound" will last. 1048-1055 would be the important resistance zone.