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Thread: The SET Index Discussion

  1. #11
    13/6/2011 5PM

    SET 1015.53 (-4.84)

    The market picked up in the afternoon, following the Hang Seng. The index reached a daily high of 1017.26, pretty much closing the downward gap from the day before (10/6/2011 low was 1017.44). Technically, it didn't completely closed the gap, but it pretty much did. So it turns out that the pattern is not going to be an evening star after all. Looking at the 3 years daily historical data, I could only find two similar events. The first one was September 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 2009. A very similar pattern, but the move before it was a clear uptrend. The result was 2 days of decline afterwards. The next example is from January 26, 27, 28, 2011. This is also followed by a 2 day decline. Let's see how the US does tonight.

    Ready for some color in your life?

  2. #12
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1023.28 (+7.75)

    SET rose this morning (against my predictions as usual) to test near the 1025 area, closing midday at the high. So we will see if it will pass 1025 this afternoon.

    So COLOR hasn't been so colorful, opening up at 6.80, far above the IPO price of 2.89! I guess it would have been better off to go global.

  3. #13
    14/6/2011 5:03PM

    SET 1034.92 (+19.39)

    So the afternoon session picked up quite dramatically. SET passed the 1025 resistance and just shot up from there, closing at the high. Of course, this is bullish and expect further increase tomorrow. Next resistance: 1048-1052.

    COLOR disappointingly closed at the day's low at 6.40. I'm sure a lot of people are in pain, but that's what happens when you open up more than 200% above the IPO price and get too much attention. Talking about attention, the day's underdog, GLOBAL-W1, made a fantastic run up, closing at 1.88 or about an 80%+ increase! Holy Mother of God! Now that's what I call heaven. If you look at its actual fair value, it's -0.50 baht (7.5 bht conversion at a 1:1 rate). But who cares! If you are good with momentum and know when to cut loss, then you're fine. Tomorrow still looks very promising. I'm not trying to cheer it up or anything, but it really does look good (I don't wanna jinx it though). I made a good choice today to go with GLOBAL-W1 and left COLOR alone.

    Banking, Petrochemicals, Energy, and Commerce led the increase today. Not surprisingly, since the market took a dump on these sectors, esp. Banking, last week.

    Industrial Production (up 13.3%) numbers from China topped estimates by analysts, and its inflation (up 5.5%) numbers are as expected, so this was the real push in the global market today, since investors have been especially worried about global economic recovery after disappointing numbers from the US for the last couple of weeks. At the same time, China did also raise its reserve ratio by 0.5% to 21.5%, which is pretty high. European Stocks are looking pretty good right now. Hopefully, it stays this way for the rest of the day. The US should be good tonight too. China really came in and saved the day this time. If these numbers had shown a slowdown, it would have been hell.

    SET Recap: Resistance 1048-1052, Support 1020-1025

    Good luck tomorrow.

  4. #14
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1035.99 (+1.07)

    SET opened lower in the morning session and went down to as low as 1029.62 (-5.30) before rebounding around 11:30AM. Leading today's gain are the Property Development, Steel, and Transportation sectors.

    The afternoon session looks promising, with SET closing midday at the daily high. Much like yesterday.

    GLOBAL and GLOBAL-W1 declined in the morning session. This could be from taking profit, or maybe they are just playing some funny games. But if it gets below 1.74, then perhaps it would be a cut loss point because it's likely to drop to 1.6 or something like that.
    Looking at the GLOBAL's daily chart, I expect the resistance to be 7.10 which was yesterday's high and also this is where the 50-day EMA is. So if it can get past the 7.10 area, then it's going to be very cheerful. In the intermediate term, it's moving sideways between 6 and 8 baht as it has been since Nov. 2010.

    Asian indices vary, ranging from -0.5% to +0.5%.

  5. #15

    SET 1030.31 (-4.61)

    Damn, talk about brutal! Global-w1 went straight up psycho apeshit today. It closed at 1.61 (-0.27, -13.83%). Maybe they're just trying to squeeze you out. Or maybe they really left...who knows.

    SET opened sharply lower in the afternoon and stayed in the negative zone between 1029 and 1032 all afternoon. I'm not even gonna predict what's going to happen tomorrow. The market is very bi-polar right now. A strong day yesterday should have led to some increase today, but that's obviously not the case. When I find myself being wrong for a few days straight, then just do the opposite of what I say (not that I'm trying to tell you to do anything) haha.

    Of course, Europe is still weighing everyone down with all their problems, with pretty much every market in Europe in the negative. It's the same problem they were worried about last June and nothing has been solved. Today, they're worried that the bailout is not going to happen. I guess that's what they've been doing all year. Talking it to death! Just do something.

    So expect the US to go down tonight too. (this means that it'll probably go up, since I said that it's gonna go down)

  6. #16
    16/6/2011 12:45 am

    Dow Jones currently down 200 points (-1.66%) on concerns over Greece and also on the disappointing New York manufacturing data. Commodities plunge. It's not going to be good tomorrow. I'm expecting something like a 15 points decline in SET later today. But based on my track record in the past week in predicting SET movement, it might just go up 15 points instead.

    Let's hope that China stays healthy because it is the only thing preventing the world from a double dip right now, in my opinion. Some are saying the US is in a stagflation. Europe is a mess. Thai politics is a mess. Japan will eventually increase demand, but not right now.
    Last edited by Mp808; 2011-06-16 at 00:57. Reason: Grammar

  7. #17
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1021.43 (-8.88)

    Most major Asian indices drop by more than 1.5%. SET went as low as 1018.64 but rose back up above 1020. The afternoon session will depend on how Europe will do as they open. Right about now, I say, let it plunge. Let SET go back down to 940. I got my money ready. heh

  8. #18
    16/6/2011 9:20pm
    SET 1019.55 (-10.76)

    Honestly, I'm surprised that SET actually managed to go down only 10 points, given how much all the other indices went down. Taiwan went down 2 percent. Europe is down as usual. The US is currently up slightly due to decrease in jobless claims and a rise in housing production. Tomorrow could go either way really.

    Luckily we're not Laos because I saw the Laos index around lunch time and it was down like 3%. Damn! Their market is probably controlled by like three people. Invest at your own risk.

  9. #19
    17/6/2011 1:20am

    US markets fell after lunch into the negative zone after news of Basel likely to increase bank capital surcharge for large banks to 3.5%, due to fears of another financial collapse. Bank stocks are down. But it could just be that investors are taking profit. I mean, the US market have been declining almost everyday, so if there's a chance to get out, then they're going to take it. On the technical side, the Dow Jones (currently at around 11.9k) is heading towards a support level of 11.8k. And it seems like the Dow has a support area every 200 points or so, at 11.6k, 11.4k, 11.2k, 11k. But if it goes below 11k, then it's going to drop fast, technically and psychologically. Under 10k and we'd already be in another recession. Yawn.

    Hang on to your cash.

  10. #20
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1021.46 (+1.91)

    SET opened slightly higher in the morning, gaining up to 1026.50 before coming back down to the current value. There has been a positive divergence between the intraday value and the intraday RSI, so hope it goes back up in the afternoon session. Not much to say today. Pretty low volume.

    Other major Asian Indices are down from -0.2% to -0.8%. The Laos Composite Index currently up 3.13%! It's a real rollercoaster ride over there.

    Alan Greenspan says that if Greece defaults, then the US will surely go into another recession. And I read that there's something like a 78% chance that Greece will default, so hmmmmmmm..... France and Germany will be screwed because they hold a lot of Greek bonds. I think we'll know by next month whether they're gonna default or not.

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