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Thread: The SET Index Discussion

  1. #21
    17/6/2011 9:30PM

    SET 1018.96 (-0.59)

    In the afternoon, volume picked up. But what really picked up was the value traded (37 billion), which was higher today than it was on Tuesday when the market went up almost 20 points. The most active value comes from ADVANC (+3.25, +3.32%), TOP (-1.75, -2.42%), and TRUE (+0.02, +0.50%). Looking at the Investor Types, this jump in value is not coming from Institutions, Foreign, or Proprietary. Instead, this is coming from Local Investors. So, some local investors buying a lot of ADVANC shares at this time. Hmmm.

    BCP had four big lots totalling to 375,483,963 shares at 20.80 baht. Word must have gotten out in the end because BCP's share price jumped from 20.30 to 20.80 at the close. A 0.50 baht (almost 2.5%) jump. Hmmm.

    Some peculiar things happening behind the scenes today...

    As of right now, most of Europe has gained, with Greece gaining a whopping 3.80% on Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicolas Sarkozy saying that they will work with the European Central Bank to come up with a rescue package and also get private creditors to help share Greece's burden, rather than let Greece's bondholders suffer most of the damage. That sure sent the market up, but how is it gonna go down? Private banks stepping in to lend to Greece. Then what? What if Greece eventually fails to pay them back? I'm not an expert on this topic by any means, but from what I've read, I'm a little skeptical. Regardless of what I think, the US market is also up from this news, with the Dow at 12,061.73 (+100.21, +0.84%) right now.

    Let's hope all is sweet as peaches next week.

  2. #22
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1018.98 (+0.02)

    SET opened higher, but failed to reach 1025, with a high of 1024.60 (+5.64). After getting stuck at 1024, the bears came in and brought it down to as low as 1017.79 (-1.17) before leveling off.

    China, Taiwan, and India are down by more than 1 percent. Hang Seng is down by about half a percent. And Nikkei is slightly positive.

    I would expect to see some big moves in the global market within the next week (that could go either direction) due to the results of the Greek bailout issue. If some private creditors steps in to help out, then we would see the markets improve. But all this does is basically buy time. It doesn't tackle the root cause in any way. The plans to reduce wages, cut government spending, and increase taxes in Greece would bring in more money for the government, but who's gonna accept that? If you were the common middle-class Greek, then this is gonna piss you off a lot. Hmm, let's see the governments and banks lend out bad loans, spend a lot of money, and is going to punish the people, who didn't get anything from it, for their terrible money management. That's the mindset. And it makes sense that they would be pissed.

    But on the flip side, if the Greeks don't pay, and it is forced to default, then the domino effect will definitely reach Thailand. But first, it will reach all the Euro countries. Then, people will start worrying more and more whether or not Ireland, Spain, and Portugal are gonna go belly-up. Then investors' confidence around the world would suffer. There'll be a panic sell in the US market on fears of another recession. Foreign Investments in China slows down. Foreign investors are gonna pull more money out of the Thai market. SET goes down to 800-900 level. It's Doomsday all over again.

    Am I being to pessimistic? Letting my imagination go a little too far. Maybe I need another cup of coffee and that hourly dose of nicotine. We will find out soon enough.

  3. #23
    20/6/2011 4:50PM

    SET 1013.09 (-5.87)

    In the afternoon, SET opened lower, tried to come back up, but couldn't get past 1019. It then made a decline, closing at the day's low. Ugly. The top losing sectors of the day are Bank, Food, and Commerce sectors, each losing more than 1%. Currently, no sector indices are above their 20-day SMA, with most actually below the 50-day SMA. Also, on the weekly chart, the candlestick indicates an engulfing bear candle, which is not good. However, it's only Monday, so all of that can change. As long as the index closes above 1013.66, then we're fine. But if it closes below that point on Friday, then we have a confirmed engulfing bear, which is usually followed by a large drop the following week or two.

    The next two major supports are 980 and 940 in my opinion. Sure, you'll see support in the 1000 area and also 990, but the major turning points would be 980 and 940. Why 980 and 940? 980 is because of the price projection from the descending triangle that I talked about before. 940 is the previous low in February 2011. Below 940 and we're in big trouble because there aren't any real consolidation zones between 940 and 800. Yes, 800... There are minor consolidations in the 910-920 area, 880 area, 850-860 area, 820, and then 800, but I think that if SET does break the 940, then the downward momentum will pick up even more and it'll drop. Remember that from June to November 2010, the market went up and up and up. So, expect a down and down and down, but a lot faster.

    Oh, so gloom and doom. All the peaches seems to be wilting away. There's a black cloud over my head. But I do believe that we are in a turning point in the Thai and global market. If anyone uses the Guppy moving average model, you'll see that the long-term EMA's are flipping down. MACD is about to be lower than the February level. RSI is making its way towards that oversold area again.

    So basically, the question is: How much more bad news and uncertainties can investors take? Like I said before, China is the only thing keeping the world afloat right now. Bad news from China will an immediate trigger point, I believe. One can only hope for the Greece thing to be okay.

  4. #24
    You's funny how brokers keep telling you to buy even though they've been selling all month.
    Someone has to come up with a way to deal with this conflict of interest.

    Oh yea, they're also gonna raise the commission by about 5% (this is the percentage for internet trading, it'll be less (in % terms) for broker trading) on July 1st.
    Too bad for all you day traders. (As a rule of thumb, if something goes wrong in the market, blame the day traders!)

  5. #25
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1024.26 (+11.17)

    Stocks opened higher in Asia after Juncker assures that some sort of bailout for Greece will happen, but many are still firm on seeing positive results from Greece first. SET rose, but was unable to pass the 1025 resistance. Trading value is still relatively low at 8,470 million baht. Gains were led by Banking, Energy, and Food sectors once again. Momentum is looking good so far today, but if SET doesn't get past 1025, then we're gonna see a drop back down to 1020 or below.

    The US market also rose yesterday due to the same news. Also, likewise, the US market traded with a relatively low volume. The big money are not jumping in, because they're waiting for confirmation. There's going to be a confidence vote in Greece today. Keep your fingers crossed.

  6. #26
    21/6/2011 5PM

    SET 1027.72 (+14.63)

    Wow, lots of optimism here. SET passed the 1025 resistance in the afternoon, and went up to test the 1030 area. It didn't get pass it, but the index did good today. The intraday graph looks real nice. On the daily chart, SET closed slightly above the 10-day EMA. Personally, I don't consider it a signal, but it's comforting to know. Of course, you have the RSI and MACD moving up. The market is still bi-polar though. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow turns out to be horrible.

    The real factor here is the confidence vote tonight. Expectations are high. The US and Euro markets are very sensitive right now and bad news can trigger a sharp (panic) sell-off.

    Right now, the Euro markets are good, with indices rising from half a percent to a percent. Asian indices also did very good today.

  7. #27
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1028.03 (+0.31)

    So as you all know, the confidence vote was in favor of Greece's current PM, which means that the world is not about to end...yet. The next step is for Greece's parliament to approve the plans for budget cuts, selling of assets, raise taxes, etc, next week.

    SET opened higher from the good news from Greece. It went as high as 1033.80 (+6.08) in the morning session but then went lower to form a triangle on the intraday chart, in which it broke down to as low as 1026.87 (-0.85) and closed the morning session at 1028.03. Judging from the trading range in the past few days, support would be at 1025 & 1020, and resistance will be at 1035. Let's see if it breaks the high of 1035.99 on 15/6/2011. If it does break it, then it could go as high as 1045, with 1045-1050 zone as the next resistance.

    As for SET's daily chart pattern, as of right now, it isn't clear what pattern it's forming. SET has just come down from the top in April. The formation that led to the decline is likely to be a descending triangle, but it could very well be a diamond top also. Maybe it's both. Who the hell knows. I read today that some analysts think that the trend might reverse to an uptrend, but I can't say that it has bottomed yet. Overall, I'm still bearish. I'm gonna play it safe on this one and will start to be bullish when SET is above 1065, and will be bullish when it's above 1085.

  8. #28
    Oh yea, I forgot to mention MALEE. Currently, +533.76% after coming out of suspension. Holy cow. I need to get me some of that I can short it!

  9. #29

    SET 1023.86 (-3.86)

    WOOOOO!!!! MALEE closed at 15.00 (+13.43, +855.41%). Oh smack! I change my mind. I don't wanna short you no more. It's unbelievable. Brand new millionaires were born today. I'm very impressed. At one point, I thought they were gonna go super epic, +1000%. hahaha. Too bad they didn't. It would have been ridiculous (in a good way).
    Is the price justified? Actually, maybe... Before, its price was 1.57, with a P/E of 1.13 (from SET website 30/9/2010 data). If you expect the fair value to be around P/E of 10, then it's 15.70. Is this the correct way? Hmmm. You would need to study up to find that out.

    As for the SET Index, it closed at the day's low. Imagine that! Good news from Europe and most of Asia is sluggish. Europe is in the red zone too, but not by much. The news says that Greek bonds rose so stocks and futures are down. It's an ugly time for the market as a whole right now. Its behavior is erratic at best. Closing at the day's high one day, and then closing at the low the next day. To be fair, the index did try to test the morning session's high in the afternoon, but it didn't make it, leading to a sell-off in the end. Nevertheless, it's a freakin rollercoaster ride. All the super risk aversed people who haven't gotten out of the market are defecating on themselves. Even though we're only in this 1010 to 1030 area, it's highly volatile due to the lack of direction and how fast it changes. We're going to have to let it ride out for a while longer to see what pattern SET is going to form, if it does form one at all. All you MAIs and ICTs are loving it though. All the other sectors are (-_-)'

    So tonight the Fed are probably gonna announce that they're gonna keep interest rates at the same level and that they're not thinking about QE3 right now. The interest rate is basically zero, so not much they can do there! People are pissed at Bernanke. After the past two QEs, it seems clear that the US economy needs life support and raises a lot of doubts on whether there have been any real progress here.

  10. #30
    Lunchtime Report
    SET 1018.19 (-5.67)

    SET opened lower today. It went down to a low of 1013.38 (-10.48), and tried to test the 1020 level, but could not get beyond 1020.09 (-3.77). SET support area is the 1010 zone. If it goes below 1008, then it could very well go down to 1000-1002. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

    Bank, ICT, and Property Development sectors are suffering today, with ICT currently down by 2.44%, led by losses in ADVANC and DTAC stocks. The Food sector is up 0.64% right now, but this is due to MALEE pushing up the sector.
    MALEE opened at 15.40 and then jumped up to 18.10 before coming back down and trading in the 17.30-17.60 range. The offers are starting to look dense.

    Last night, the Fed lowered its growth forecast for the US this year, sending US indices down.

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